18 November 2010
07 November 2010
Sebastian Janikowski is a Real Man
A 96-yard field goal would be miraculous, unfortunately it was just a glitch.
05 November 2010
Under-Reported Story, But I'm Sure You're Following It
22 October 2010
Please Solve This Issue Someone
20 October 2010
War Eagle
This past weekend, my lovely girlfriend and myself decided to take in some of the local sights and events, so we attended the War Eagle Fair on Saturday. The event itself is actually less of a regular fair and more about arts, crafts, and people peddling overpriced homemade stuff. We had been informed of the event by some people at my work and then some others here in the MBA program, they told me it was going to be big, but I had no idea how big it actually is.
We left the apartment around 9:30 on Saturday, made a quick stop by the farmers market in Fay-town to peruse the fruits and veggies, then we were off to War Eagle (which is apparently a very small city/mill/stream in addition to a yearly crafts fair). We then spent the next two hours in traffic waiting to park at the fair, it was a flippin' zoo! After we finally parked, we strolled through the various booths. My general rule of thumb after being there, the small stuff is overpriced, the big stuff is priced right/comparatively under-priced, I'm not sure if there's some kind of economic principle here or not, if I can think of something I'll try to post about it. We didn't get much beyond the expected and typical fried food and kettle corn, but the one thing we did get that I really liked was a small silver ring for the Novia (girlfriend in Spanish) at a booth with antiques. My guess (actually wishful desire) is that the ring was cherished by some sweet old lady for many years, she passed away, the vendor picked it up at an estate sale, and now we have it, and we can start the cycle over again. It might not be the case, but I can hope. My conclusion about War Eagle, it's pretty cool, but leave early, like really early.
After the Fair, we went back to the apartment and watched the Razorbacks get absolutely hosed by the officials. On the bright side, thanks to the generosity of a local optometrist, SEC teams should be spared from future officiating blunders. The Razorbacks game wasn't the only officiating problem in the SEC this weekend, check out this video and see if you laugh as much as I did.
13 October 2010
Currently
These past couple weeks sure have been interesting, we just finished up our last midterm this morning, it was actually the final for a half-semester class on ethics. The class was nice, and something I really enjoyed was that it stayed away from academic ethics almost entirely and instead we debated Enron, Wal-Mart's green initiatives, and various other ethical cases. While the acedemic theories are great (I'm a cultural relativist with a firm belief in social contract theory, I know, somewhat contradictory) they don't represent the issues, challenges, and gray areas facing many global and multinational corporations in today's "flat" world.
I'm going to wrap it up soon here and get back to the real world, but I just want to speak to something I harped on last time I posted. Being at this school, in this MBA program, provides so many opportunities for interacting with the most powerful people in industry. Just last Wednesday, most of the MBA program got to go attend a conference with Proctor and Gamble CEO Bob McDonald, Wal-Mart US CEO Bill Simon, and Google US Sales Director Jim Lecinski. For my money, Lecinski was by far the best speaker and his presentation on the "zero moment of truth" was the kind of deep insight not seen from the more generalized CEO's.
In the near future, the Czar will be guest posting, he's still trying to think of a topic.
21 September 2010
Apparently Someone Reads This Thing
Hi Ehram, I am currently completing my MBA at the University of Arkansas, Sam Walton College of Business. While I do not have direct, first-hand knowledge of any MBA programs in the UK I will attempt to put forth what I believe sets a Walton MBA apart from all schools. And I will try not to sound arrogant when I say this, but a key difference between a Walton MBA and any other MBA program anywhere is our proximity to a Fortune 1 company. As the name implies, there is only one Fortune 1 company, and we're the closest top-flight school. This proximity affords us select few in the program the opportunity not only to interact with them, but also to take advantage of all the resources they have drawn to the area. Just this morning I walked into my marketing research class (a few minutes late to my embarassment) and speaking to the class was Bob Seelert, the Worldwide Chairman of Saatchi and Saatchi. And I can honestly say that was not a random occurance, just yesterday evening I had a thirty minute long conversation with a VP of Category Management for Micheal's (North America's largest crafts and hobbies company).
Wal-Mart (the afforementioned Fortune 1 company) has drawn to the area every vendor they deal with, I know they (Wal-Mart) have a permanent contingent of Deloitte people here (I know there is a PWC and E&Y office in the area, not sure about KPMG), and they have a very active International M&A department (I know this because they employ a former Walton MBA grad). All of that is to say that while the area is dominated by a single company, we are not limited in our employment options either by the employer whom we wish to work for or what line of work we wish to follow. As an analogy, Wal-Mart's $400+billion in revenues puts them on par with the economies of Ohio, New Jersey, and Belgium (they're actually slightly larger than Belgium), something that large has to be diverse.
Another competitive advantage of the Walton MBA is our entrepreneurial track record. Last year we were listed as the #7 most competitive MBA program in the country, and that was before we swept nearly all top prizes at Moot Corp (the "Super Bowl", or "FA Cup" if more to your liking, of business plan competitions) and a host of other business plan competitions. In addition to the cash prizes, two new businesses have been formed out of last years entrepreneurship track, which is quite amazing for a program of our size. With regards to our size, being a small program ( < style="mso-spacerun: yes"> While I do not begrudge people for going to Harvard (they're obviously a great school with an exceptional track record), with near 2,000 full-time MBA students, I don't think I would be afforded the firsthand opportunities I have had here in Arkansas.
My intention was not to go this long, but I guess I did get a post out of it so it's not all bad, my regrets to Ehram for my lengthy answer, next time I'll try to keep it brief! In other university news, this weekend we get to roll Alabama on the football field, I'll try to post pics sometime next week if we win.
16 September 2010
Yeah, I Occasionally Do Homework
"I am writing to inform you of a recent conflagration of events and occurrences that may have widespread implications for global M&A activity into the near future. Given recent corporate proclivity to hold excess cash ($1.84 trillion in cash and marketable securities on non-financial corporate balance sheets) and worldwide investors insatiable demand for bonds it seems many companies, especially those under pressure to deliver results to shareholders, will derive lofty valuations for firms they seek to acquire.
As evidence for the insatiable demand of bonds, I will present the results of two recent debt offerings, one by McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD), and another by Norfolk Southern (NYSE: NSC). Late this July, MCD issued $450mil of 10-year notes and $300mil of 30-year bonds. The 10-year notes were issued with a yield of 3.5%, matching the lowest 10-year rate for all US issuers in 15 years, the 30-year notes (issued at 4.875%) matched an all-time low mark set recently by Wal-Mart. In addition, NSC recently issued what has been termed “century” bonds. These bonds, as the name indicates, will not pay back their principal until 2110, a time at which (likely) all current purchasers will have ceased to be living. NSC initially planned to sell only $100mil of these bonds, but prior to announcing the quantity of the deal, investors expressed interest in at least $75mil, the issuance was then raised to $250mil and was still oversubscribed. This oversubscription and the competitive bidding process for the paper led to the bonds selling above par (6%), and with a yield-to-maturity of 5.95%. While very few assets can have a lifespan of 100 years and thus will not be able to match the lifespan of the liability, I will offer a short defense of the century bond. If (and this will likely not be the case) the coming hundred years is analogous to the last hundred years, the present value of the $250mil principal payment in 2110 is currently nominally worth approximately $13mil, which is $2mil less than the real annual coupon payment.
This ability to acquire cheap cash could lead to an expansion of worldwide M&A deals. While above I state this cheap cash will lead to expensive acquisitions, I believe this has already begun and should serve as a cautionary tale to executives thinking about expanding through acquisitions. Recently, there have been three large acquisitions or attempted acquisitions that have occurred. Intel recently acquired McAfee virus protection in an all-cash deal and publicly stated the deal “will not significantly contribute to next year’s income”, seemingly fitting the bill of an expensive acquisition. Additionally, HP and Dell are currently locked in a bidding war for the data storage company 3Par, with the most recent bid nearly double the initial offer. And this acquisition spree is not limited to tech firms, with Australian mining giant BHP Billiton having recently taken a $130/share offer directly to the shareholders in an attempt to win control of the Canadian fertilizer miner Potash of Saskatchewan, this $130/share offer has been rejected by management as being too low and the company is currently searching for a “white knight” with several sovereign wealth funds being considered as potential bidders in addition to BHP. Companies that may or may not be on the prowl for acquisitions in the near future include Apple and Cisco, both with net cash positions of at least $25bil."
I wrote the memo about two weeks ago and some changes have already taken place, just a couple days ago Cisco announced they would be returning some of their large cash pool to shareholders through a dividend. Of the two main methods of returning capital to shareholders, dividends are the method I least like, but it's a good start and that's a discussion for another day. If you (my reader, singular) have any questions about that writing, or any other questions about classes here at Walton, let me know, I do take blog requests. Also, sometime on the horizon, I'll be having a guest blogger (the Czar) do a post for a little different perspective on the program.
07 September 2010
Hello Again
Anyways, I’ve been planning to post an assignment from my management class because I thought my writing was pretty smart, but I’ll start back blogging with something a little lighter, a weekend recap!! This weekend was awesome, fun, and fortunately long thanks to Labor Day.
My weekend got underway Thursday with a “team training” event in Branson with the company I intern for. We stayed at the Chateau on the Lake and participated in such well-known events as “The Wal*Mart Pivot” and the “blind-folded move the ball with a ring and strings game”. Anyways, as skeptical as I am of most of this corporate team building hullaballoo it was actually quite interesting and we learned how to interpret most anything through the value system the company has laid out. The real fun however, began after dinner when we went to the hospitality room, and as much as I would love to post about the debauchery that took place there, if I did I think Rebel (GSB admin director) would have my head. If there’s a big outcry for it from my reader then I’ll post it, cuz I do what I want!!!! Anyway, this little fella here was our mascot: (we were the yellow team)
Friday evening was completely devoted to getting ready for Saturday, and like most autumn Saturdays in the south, there was only one thing on the mind. . . FOOTBALL!! My roommate (the one libeled above) acquired a parking pass a pretty decent lot so we could tailgate, and tailgate we did, we grilled, threw the pigskin and imbibed! It was my first taste of SEC football and only served to whet my appetite for more, the next more is Alabama in a few weeks, which should be a great game if our defense continues playing well. My girlfriend took this picture while we were tailgating, the large blob in the trailer is apparently the same speedy razorback seen on the side of the truck:
The rest of my weekend was spend recuperating on the farm in Oklahoma, and I could probably still do some recuperating, but I’ll have to wait ‘til this weekend, fortunately it’s a short week. To my reader, I promise to blog again soon! No more three week intervals, I promise!
11 August 2010
09 August 2010
Weekend Update
- Bacon-Local, grain-fed, and soaked in honey and maple, in a word: Delicious
- Coffee-Iced mocha latte with a splash of vanilla
- Potatoes-This one seems healthy on its face, but after cooking, the first item from this list was applied, as well as copious amounts of butter and cheese. Also, I can really tell a difference between farm-fresh and store bough potatoes
- Cookies-From a local bakery, slightly overpriced but definitely worth it
29 July 2010
That Was a Crazy Game of Poker
Bubble Logic
My dear readers, it’s finally occurring, the long brownies/short cupcakes arbitrage strategy is finally paying off! I quote a headline from a recent article on Yahoo!’s homepage: “Cupcakes and 6 Other Food Trends That Have Lost Their Cool”
I don’t like to brag or anything, but I think I could be the John Paulson of the dessert market. And, if this comparison proves to be true, I would really like to have a book written about this mythical trade entitled “The Tastiest Trade Ever”, you may remember Mr. Paulson had a book written about his short of the housing market in 2008 called “The Greatest Trade Ever”.
To explain how to make a killing in the dessert market without spending a single grain of sugar from your sugar reserves you must have an understanding of a couple key terms, we’ll start with arbitrage. Arbitrage is a wonderful idea, but typically only occurs in theory and the world of super-computing, the latter I don’t’ have access to and the former doesn’t exist so none of the following writing is applicable to much of anything in my world or likely yours, but I digress. What I was about to get to is that arbitrage is all about mis-pricing, this can be the mis-pricing of a single asset traded in two different markets or the divergence (a statistical anomaly) of one or more assets from an expected or observed, price or pricing relationship. This statistical divergence lends itself to the particular kind of arbitrage set up in the long brownies/short cupcake strategy, statistical arbitrage (statarb for short, try using statarb in a sentence today, people will think you know more than you do).
I have long been an observer/partaker in the dessert market, and have participated in many of the ups and downs of this market. I was a participating member in the 2004 Great Vanilla Ice Cream Intake bubble and sadly I was also present for the subsequent sugar crash that always follows those kinds of gluttonous bubbles. Dessert cakes have long been a favorite sector but until recently I hadn’t noticed the trade to make it profitable. The dessert cake sector of this market is highlighted by a small, but tasty, set of securities ranging from the aforementioned cupcakes and brownies to such luminaries as lemon bars, cookie cakes, tiramisu, and coffee cake. An interesting thing is that while all members of this sector compete against one another, their prices are highly positively correlated, or at least I think they could be. When cupcakes began outpacing the others after much publicity in the Sex and the City TV series and subsequent movies I began to take notice. Not wanting to expose myself to potential upside still in the cupcake bubble I looked to statarb to remove the risk. To illustrate this risk reduction, imagine I short cupcakes at a $2X/unit and buy an equal dollar amount of brownies at $X/unit. Knowing, from prior research, brownies trade at parity with cupcakes (unlike pricy tiramisu) I can go long brownies and short cupcakes as I believe brownies are undervalued relative to cupcakes and when the prices converge, in percentage and not actual price, I make money.
So to wrap this all up I’ll conclude with this profound statement, I’ve just profited from a trade in which I didn’t have to spend a dime and didn’t take on any risk, sounds enticing, doesn’t it? Also, and as promised, the new poll should be up, the czar (fellow MBA’er here at Walton) thinks Citigroup common stock is headed to $8 within the next year, it currently trades around $4. I think he’s wrong, where do you think it’ll end up in two weeks? I’m going with $3.85, apparently I’m short Citigroup. I’ve had enough blogging for one night, I’m off to O’Hara’s house to hone my statistical skills playing poker (thanks Prof. Aloysius!!).
19 July 2010
- Direction - My dad is a civil engineer and all of my family is very mechanically-minded so I have a tendency to analyze all objects with flow and direction. This leads to three possible outcomes, forward, backward, and static (going nowhere). And what I saw when I looked at other schools was not necessarily atrophy or backwards motion but apathy, they didn't talk about getting nationally ranked and they didn't talk about how competitive they were, which left me feeling apathetic about their schools. Both of these things were talked about by nearly everyone at Walton, and I could tell the staff felt they were on the cusp of something big. Essentially I had the feeling the program was in forward motion with everyone working to make the program better. As it turns out, my feelings were correct and we were just ranked the #25 full-time public MBA program this spring by US News, and now we're tasked with keeping, and building this impressive momentum.
- Camaraderie - One thing that personally made a difference for me was the feeling of camaraderie I felt I would receive at Walton. Unlike all the schools I visited, the full-time students at Walton travel in one large pack. We started with 36 people this spring and at the change of classes we would move as a 36-person mob from one room to the next. This allows you to know everyone in the program by name, know their significant others, know their hometowns, and eventually it creates this fabric where you don't have to remember any specific due dates or meeting times because the group will. I think of this past semester like no one knew everything, but collectively, we knew it all.
- Facilities - For me, this was the one that held the most sway. I remember Rebel taking me up to the MBA floor and we looked at the case study rooms and the classrooms and I was absolutely stunned. The facilities looked better, in person, than any pictures from any other school I had seen on the internet, even crazy aspirational programs I wouldn't consider applying to. Rebel told me some of the GSB staff went to Cambridge, Mass. to examine Harvard's facilities and the people who did their's did ours and honestly, I think we must have the best facilities in the nation.